Happy New Year, friends!

Today it’s crystal ball time with a look at what’s ahead in the family office world.

But first, a look back. In January 2025, we asked followers on X to predict what would happen in the year ahead.

The results were mixed.

Here’s what people got wrong:

But here’s what people got right:

So what about 2026?

You can share your view in our short 2026 Predictions survey on X, but from the family office reports we’ve been reading, here’s what the year might hold.

Recent family office surveys point to a clear shift away from binary risk-on or risk-off thinking and toward optionality.

The UBS Global Family Office Report noted that families are “maintaining risk exposure while increasing liquidity buffers,” a combination that reflects neither fear nor exuberance, but preparedness.

Public markets still matter, but increasingly as sources of liquidity rather than engines of long-term compounding. One CIO quoted in the report describes listed assets as being valued “less for upside and more for flexibility.”

Across North America and Europe, families continue to commit to private equity, yet incremental capital is being directed toward strategies that reduce duration risk and blind-pool exposure.

Secondaries, co-investments, and private credit feature prominently, echoing Campden Wealth findings that families are “prioritising visibility of cash flows and earlier liquidity over headline IRRs.”

Real assets continue to anchor portfolios. UBS data shows European families remain persistently overweight real estate relative to institutional norms, a stance described in one interview as “a preference for permanence over precision.” Infrastructure-adjacent assets and energy exposure are increasingly framed not as tactical inflation hedges, but as long-term stabilisers.

Reports repeatedly reference higher cash balances, expanded credit facilities, and more professional internal treasury functions.

The underlying objective is consistent: retain the ability to act decisively without becoming a forced seller.

J.P. Morgan Private Bank describes a shift from “narrative-driven investing to evidence-driven underwriting.” Families are more selective, more sceptical, and far less tolerant of weak governance or opaque structures.

Large commingled funds remain embedded in portfolios, but marginal capital increasingly flows toward situations where families can see, influence, or clearly understand the underlying asset.

Direct investing continues to expand, but selectively. Campden highlights that the strongest appetite sits where families bring operating or sector expertise, particularly industrials, healthcare services, logistics, energy, and software-enabled businesses.

Private credit has consolidated its role. Across multiple reports it is described as a portfolio anchor, offering contractual cash flows, senior positioning, and less reliance on valuation narratives.

At the same time, underwriting discipline is tightening. Several CIOs caution that credit is only defensive if structure leads the decision, not yield.

AI appears in every major family office report, but the framing is changing.

The speculative phase has cooled. According to UBS, families are increasingly focused on infrastructure-adjacent exposure (picks and shovels) rather than direct investments. Compute, data centres, energy supply, semiconductors, and vertical software with embedded AI attract more sustained interest than consumer-facing or purely narrative-driven models.

There is also growing recognition that AI value will accrue unevenly and over time. As one family office principal quoted by Campden notes, “We expect to be early on infrastructure and late on winners.”

Inside the family office, adoption is accelerating.

Reporting, document review, risk monitoring, and manager screening are increasingly augmented by AI tools. Current software solutions already use agentic AI to automate alts document processing, make portfolio projections and allow users to interact with natural language.

Whatever the area, the emphasis is on speed, accuracy, and error reduction. The objective is augmentation of judgment, not replacement of people.

Governance is becoming more operational and less theoretical.

Across regions, families are tightening investment policy statements, formalizing committees, and clarifying decision rights.

Rising complexity is a recurring theme, including cross-border exposure, co-investments, next-generation involvement, and heightened regulatory scrutiny.

European and Asian families, in particular, increasingly frame governance as a defensive asset. UBS notes that families see governance as a way to preserve cohesion amid political, fiscal, and regulatory uncertainty, not merely as a compliance exercise.

Talent remains one of the least discussed, yet most frequently cited risks.

Multiple reports highlight rising compensation pressure and a growing mismatch between expectations imported from banking or asset management and the realities of a family office environment.

Retention, cultural fit, and internal succession are emerging as binding constraints as offices professionalize.

Smaller and mid-sized offices are responding with hybrid models and selective outsourcing. Larger platforms are investing in senior hires with operating backgrounds, reflecting the widely held view that judgment scales better than financial engineering.

The message is consistent: loyalty can’t be assumed, and professionalism isn’t optional.

2026 is shaping up as a year of reinforcement rather than bold bets.

The unifying theme is preparedness: the ability to adapt and act without being forced into decisions.